Josephine County Real Estate: Market Stats and Outlook

Hey neighbors,

Whether you're in Grants Pass enjoying the Rogue River views, out in Merlin with some acreage, or down in the Illinois Valley, I know you're tuned into our market—especially if you're pondering a move this year. As we start 2026, here's my breakdown of the latest MLS data plus some fresh insights on where we're headed. I've been helping folks buy and sell here for years, and this lines up with the showings and offers I'm handling daily.

We closed out 2025 on a balanced note, with inventory giving buyers more breathing room and a nice bump in pendings hinting at momentum into the new year.

- **Absorption Rate**: 5.33 months (up 5.5% from Nov 2024). YTD: 5.74 months (up 15.5%). We're solidly balanced between buyer and sellers—great for realistic pricing without the old frenzy.

- **Active Listing Prices**: Avg $587,818 (up 9.5%), Median $462,000 (up 1.5%).

- **Sold Prices**: Avg $453,198 (up 4.6%), Median $412,000 (up 6.5%). YTD median up 1.5% to $405,000.

- **Days on Market**: Median 56 days (up 30% from last Nov), reflecting more buyer choice.

- **Volume**:

- Solds: 90 (down 2.2%), YTD 938 (down 4.6%).

- Pendings: 92 (up 33.3%—love seeing this!), YTD 1,019 (up 5.1%).

- Actives: 448 (up 4.2%).

- New Listings: 78 (down 10.3% seasonally).

The mid-range ($300K–$500K) remains our hotspot, with pendings strong there. Lower-end sales softened a bit, while some higher brackets showed gains.

## Early 2026 Outlook

Statewide and regionally, we're seeing stabilization with modest growth expected. Oregon home prices rose about 0.9–3% in late 2025, inventory is up (giving buyers options), and sales volume dipped seasonally but with steady demand from lifestyle movers. In Josephine County specifically:

- Recent medians around $375K–$437K (varying by source), with some reports showing slight dips or stability in average values.

- Homes taking 60–90+ days on market lately, aligning with our balanced shift.

- Positive signs: Pending surge in November + easing rates could spark an early spring pickup.

What It Means for You

- **Buyers**: More inventory means better selection and negotiation room—especially if you've been waiting. With rates stabilizing, now's a solid time to get pre-approved and tour.

- **Sellers**: Price competitively (especially under $400K where competition softened), stage well, and highlight our Rogue Valley perks. Well-prepared homes still move, and that pending jump is encouraging.

2025 was resilient here in Josephine County—prices held steady overall despite more choices. If you're thinking about buying riverfront, upsizing in Grants Pass, or downsizing to something low-maintenance, let's talk. I'm here for free consults, market comps, or just to chat.

FREE HOLIDAY PORTAIT OPEN HOUSE EVENT

1106 Cascade Loop Cave Junction OR 97523 Open House New Construction Realtor Kale Murray, Sue Kern

Looking for the perfect holiday gift for yourself or your family? How about a brand-new home with sweeping mountain views and a digital free family portrait to print and hang on the wall the day you move in?

Join Sue Kern and me tomorrow for a cozy, Christmas-themed open house at one of the most beautiful homes in Laurel Pines Estates! Tour this stunning $379,900 move-in-ready gem featuring:

• Vaulted ceilings & an open, light-filled floor plan

• Gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances

• Gorgeous views of the Illinois Valley Golf Course and surrounding mountains

• Peaceful, brand-new neighborhood in the heart of Cave Junction

While you’re here, treat yourself to:

• Hot chocolate & holiday treats

• Festive Christmas props for photos

• An adorable, cuddly puppy to pose with

• A FREE professional portrait session (digital files included!) – perfect for holiday cards or your new home’s gallery wall

No appointment needed – just swing by between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM. Bring the kids, bring your friends, and come see why so many people are falling in love with Laurel Pines Estates and the Illinois Valley.

Discover Serenity and Luxury: Your Guide to Laurel Pines Estates in Cave Junction, OR

Calling Cave Junction home in the heart of Oregon's breathtaking Illinois Valley, Laurel Pines Estates offers a perfect blend of small-town charm, outdoor adventure, and modern convenience. If you're dreaming of a home where stunning mountain vistas meet small town Southern Oregon, look no further —our hometown premier new subdivision that surpasses all expectations. As locals who know every swimming hole, hidden trail and scenic overlook in the Illinois Valley, my co-listing partner Sue Kern and I at Illinois Valley Real Estate are thrilled to showcase this budding community. No one understands this valley like we do—we sell more homes here than every other office combined!

Why Laurel Pines Estates Stands Out in the Illinois Valley

Laurel Pines Estates isn't just a neighborhood; it's a thoughtfully crafted sanctuary designed for proximity to our surroundings’ natural beauty yet also close to modern amenities, community and creature comforts.  These homes are for those who crave quality, need fresh air, peace and quiet. Located just above the Illinois Valley Country Club, this subdivision boasts mountain views that create a serene backdrop viewing the lush Illinois Valley peaks. Imagine waking up to the sight of rolling hills and evergreen forests, while being minutes from swimming holes in a pristine wild river, golfing, hiking trails, and the convenience of Cave Junction and only 40 minutes from Grants Pass.

Key highlights of the community include:

• Prime Location: Conveniently accessed off Highway 199.  Just turn onto River Street and right on Sawyer Avenue. From Hwy 199 in Cave Junction, head north on River Street, turn right on Sawyer Ave past the dead end, and the entrance is on your left—lots start from here.
  Custom Home Designs: Built by Cornerstone Construction, these homes feature innovative split floor plans with open layouts, solid countertops, vaulted ceilings, LVP flooring, energy-efficient LED lighting, and attached two-car garages

Spotlight: Move-In Ready Gem at 1106 Cascade Loop

Right now, we're excited to feature the move-in-ready home in Laurel Pines Estates—1106 Cascade Loop, Cave Junction, OR 97523. Priced at an incredible $379,000, this brand-new single-family residence is ready for you to call it home today. MLS# 220197397.

Here's what makes this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom beauty a standout:

• Spacious Living: 1,506 sq ft of main living space on a corner lot spanning 0.17 acres—plenty of room for relaxation and entertaining.

• Interior Highlights: Open-concept kitchen with stainless appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave included!), vaulted ceilings, ceiling fans, and double-pane windows for natural light. The primary suite boasts an accessible bathroom with dual sinks and a walk-in shower.

• Modern Comforts: Forced air heating, electric water heater, City of Cave Junction public sewer and water. Enjoy the covered front porch, attached 2 car garage and beautiful landscaping.

—let's schedule your private showing!

For more details watch this video!
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1KNqufnAt1/

View the listing: https://www.flexmls.com/share/DBk7X/1106-Cascade-Loop-Cave-Junction-OR-97523

Or contact us directly!

Why Partner with Illinois Valley Real Estate Experts?

At Illinois Valley Real Estate, Sue Kern and I (Kale Murray) bring unmatched local insight to every transaction. We've helped countless families find their slice of paradise here, and we're committed to making your Laurel Pines experience seamless.

• Kale Murray: 541-237-4394 | kale@ivre.co

• Sue Kern: 541-254-1988 | Sue@ivre.co

Ready to explore? Reach out for a free consultation, tour of 1106 Cascade Loop, or info on upcoming phases (construction will soon be underway with more custom homes on the horizon). By appointment only—call today!

2026 Home Buyer’s Guide: How to Buy a Home in Josephine County with Rates at 6.2% (and What Happens If They Drop More)

Kale Murray, Licensed Realtor®

Illinois Valley Real Estate Serving Grants Pass ⋅ Cave Junction ⋅ Selma ⋅ Kerby ⋅ Wilderville ⋅ Merlin ⋅ Grants Pass & all of Josephine County Call or text:

541-237-4394

kale@ivre.co | realkale.com

If you’ve been sitting on the fence waiting for mortgage rates to “get good again,” the wait is basically over.

As of this week (December 2025), the national 30-year fixed average just dropped to 6.19% — and I’m getting qualified buyers in Josephine County approved at 5.99%–6.25% with local lenders and credit unions right now.

That’s the lowest we’ve seen since 2023, and it’s putting real money back in people’s pockets.

But here’s the truth most national headlines won’t tell you: rates are likely to bounce between 5.8% and 6.5% through all of 2026. Waiting for 4–5% could cost you $50,000–$100,000 more for the same house once our local prices keep rising.

So should you buy now? My answer for almost every ready buyer right now is a loud YES — and here’s exactly how we’re making it happen.

The Math That’s Getting Buyers Off the Fence Right Now

For a typical Josephine County home priced at $425,000 today (the current median sale price around Grants Pass):

• If you buy today at the current average rate of 6.19%, your principal-and-interest payment would be $2,599 per month, you lock in the home at $425,000, and you’ll pay approximately $517,000 in interest over the full 30-year loan.

• If you wait 12 months hoping to catch a lower rate of 5.5%, your monthly payment would drop to $2,518 (only $81 less per month), but by then the same house will likely cost around $448,000 because of normal 6% appreciation in our market — and even with the lower rate, you’ll still pay about $459,000 in total interest over the life of the loan.

In other words, waiting saves you $81 a month on paper, but it costs you an extra $23,000 upfront for the house and you miss out on a full year of building equity and tax benefits.

5 Strategies My Josephine County Buyers Are Using Right This Minute

1. 2-1 Temporary Buydowns – Seller or builder pays to drop your rate 2% year one, 1% year two. Turns a 6.125% loan into 4.125% the first year → saves $500–$600/mo when you need it most.

2. Permanent Buydowns with Seller Concessions – Ask for 3% of the price in closing-cost credit and buy the rate down forever into the mid-5s.

3. Oregon Bond & OHCS Down-Payment Assistance – Still available and stacks with conventional loans (up to 5% help).

4. House Hacking / ADUs – Buy a duplex or home with a rental unit and let tenants pay most or all of your mortgage.

5. Shop Local Credit Unions First – They are beating the big banks by 0.25%–0.375% right now.

6. Your 2026 Josephine County Buying Calendar (Sweet Spots Highlighted)

• Dec 2025 – Jan 2026 → Get pre-approved & educated

• Jan 15 – Mar 15 → Absolute best window — new inventory hits, low competition

• Apr – May → Highest competition & prices

• Jun – Aug → Slower pace, motivated sellers

• Sep – Nov → Second wave of listings + rates often dip again

Ready to Make 2026 Your Homeownership Year?

Text or call me right at 541-237-4394

Rates are literally gift-wrapped this month. Let’s go unwrap yours.

Kale Murray Illinois Valley Real Estate 541-237-4394 realkale.com

P.S. The last time rates were this good, the best homes were gone in days. This time, let’s make sure one of them has your name on it.